Mobile broadband

Mobile broadband will not gain popularity and it will eventually disappear. I would compare it with satellite phones, there is a small market reallu can benefit from it, but in the long run the market is to small to sustain a separate technology.

The reasons EV-DO or other broadband phone technology cannot be popular are the following:
* WiFi is wide spead with multipke cities providing free accesses.
* WiFi is free at home.
* Mobile broadband cannot replace wired broadband access at home.
- Wired technology is always going to be faster and cheaper than wireless, because it does not have to deal with interference.
- Since mobile broadband is tied with someone's mobile phone, you cannot just leave it home for other family member to use. And why should I pay for 2 mobile broadband services if I can share the wired at home. Of course, this can change, but since it is not here yet, less people would be willing to invest in the new wireless option.
* Web content on the phone is less graphic intensive. That can change, because part of the reason web ages target phones has less graphic is because current mobile data speed is low. But there is another reason that web for phone will never have as much graphic or content than PC. That is the small screen. Screen size and resolution can increase, but it will always be smaller than a PC monitor, much smaller.
- A mobile phone has to be small.
- fonts and graphics have to be large enough for people to see.

One application that is pushing the mobile broadband adoption is mobile TV, or watching TV on cell phones. I already explained in my last post that that is not going to catch on in the US.

Mobile TV

Just read a report at CES on mobile TV by Junko Yoshida. She is getting skeptical about the future of mobile TV. She quoted some concern on carrier dependence, and change of heart on the technology behind.

I don't think mobile will ever strive in the US, not because technology or mobile carriers. It is because of life style. I still remembered the time when I first saw small hand held TVs in Radio shack. Before all the digital TV stuff and HD TV, the small 2 to 4 inch TVs looked cute and interesting. However, it never catches and large market. It is not because of the cost, because at that time cable TV is getting popular, and a lot of people still watches broadcast TV at home. The real reason is that Americans has no time to use the tiny TVs. Mobile TV is more popular in Asia and Europe because a lot of people use public transportation every day. In Japan, communter trains are essential part of the working class. Besides a few large cities on the east coast, most of Americans drive. You can't watch TV when driving. At home people are getting larger and larger TVs, no one is going to watch Mobile TV at home.

Why is lying so hard?

There is always 2 parts of lying. One is the logical part. Any believalbe lies have to make sense. No one is going to believe I can eat a cow alive, because it is much larger than my body and won't fit in to me. The second part is the psychological part of the lie. This part can be exhibited in many ways. The most important is the human facial expression. The reason when people lie, they typically circle their eyes and not look directly at someone is because it is hard to control our expressions when we know what we say is a lie.

A good liar requires to master both parts and because different people are good at different part, it is very hard to find someone that are good at both. Bill Clinton is someone good at the logical part. Natually, he is a smart guy and certainly more analytical than most of the average people. He is also trained as a lawyer, which building a logical case is require for any legal debate. However, he sucks at psychological part. He was red faced the whole time when he stated that he did not have sex with that woman.

People who are good at psychological part of lying are typical viewed as believers of their lies. I don't think all of them are, but it takes quite a bit of twisting of someone's mind to believe in some lies. Examples of such people are con mens. I am also thinking about cult leaders or child molesting priests. These people typically find justifications for their lies and feel comfortable with lying. The justification could be wanting to make money, etc.

I must say, 99% of the liars can be spotted by confronting them with some evidence and they would break down psychologically. Few can lie in the face of clear evidence. What is hard to find the 1%. Many times, despite evidences known to the public, there is always doubts, maybe very little, but it is still there. OJ Simpson case is a very good example. Himself certainly knows if he did it or not. However, unless there is video showing OJ doing it, it was always possible somebody has done it.

Prediction

I am going to make some prdictions in the new year. This is the time for me be a fortune teller.

In fifty years, we would see artificial limbs with all five fingers controled by the person's nerve. Human will be closer to become cyborg. But I don't think computer can reach human intellegence in the same time. There has to be a revolution in software development, before computers can get closer to human.

The iPod will disappear from the market in ten years. Replacing it is the iTune or likely service running on almost every cellphone.

In the video game world, all game consoles will have Wii type of motion sensing controls. There will be tons of accessaries using the Bluetooth connection to add special feel of game play to the consoles. And the game console will not replace DVD players and computers.

Hybrid cars will not replace gas engine cars. There will not be an oil shortage in ten years. There maybe short term shortage for one to a few months. But there will not be a general shortage of oil. Developing countries will rely more on nuclear power. And due to polical reasons, the US would not take advantage of it nuclear technology.

In one hundred years, there will be a serious backlash against liberal and progressive movement. The US will see another burst of growth, fueled by the push to use nuclear energy.