Recession is over

Playing psychic again.

Based on the public sentiments and how many bad news has happened, I think the recession is over. Of course, we will continue to see some bad news come, but with high unemployment, low interest rate and big government spending, the economy will be back soon. My prediction is the end of this year or early next year.

The hard part is to determine which sector will come back big. The energy and raw material businesses are sure to benefit from a strong economy, but I don't believe they can be the driving force. People are scared or at least cautious about housing industry, so no big news there. High tech is ok, but the tech bubble was not that long ago, so I don't expect any excitement there either.

Here are a series of predictions I am going to make. I don't think I would be the next Nostradamus, and don't intend to be as vague a he is so anything can be mapped to what he wrote, but I think simple probability would allow me to get a few things write.

* The economic crisis is on everybody's mind, so I will start here. I am no economist, so my prediction is all based on God given power that I have, and I really can see the future. I predict the economy will stablize around mid this year. However, recovery and new growth would not happen until end 2010.
* Obama will win a second term. No matter how hard Republicans try, unless Obama does something completely stupid, which is very unlikely looking at his past, he will win. Also, GOP is still in a disarray, there is no clear leader.
* US troops will not be completely out of Iraq in 2011 as Obama stated. Because Obama puts more emphasize on Afganistan, it is likely Al Quada would shift back to Iraq. Something is going to happen for Obama to find an excuse. US troops completely out would be in 5 years. If Obama would be in a tight race in the next election, he may pull it to 4 years.
* The US will be in Afganistan for at least 10 more years, maybe 20. The likely good out come is that Taliban is sidelined in the region, much like FARC in columbia.

That's all for today.
- Wen
Sent from mobile phone